1. panthers: cj stroud

QB • Ohio State

There was no better combine passing performance this year than Stroud’s in Indy. There was no better on-field passing performance than Stroud’s in Atlanta. He’s not perfect, but his ability to move the pocket, layer the football, and dissect even the best defenses he’s faced makes him an ideal fit for Frank Reich, and a sure thing to go first overall.

2. texans: bryce young

QB • Alabama

What a dream scenario here. The guy many believe Carolina originally traded up for, and the guy many believe Houston covets, falls into their lap at second overall. Young’s size is worth noting, but it certainly hasn’t hampered him to this point, and he’ll get the luxury of playing behind and improving line with a strong ground game in Houston.

3. cardinals: will anderson

ED • Alabama

Sure, they could trade out of this spot, but why? Is extra draft capital worth more than landing one of the surest things in this class? Anderson didn’t test off the charts in Indy, but he’s been the best edge defender in college football for at least two seasons, and his 10-yard split (1.61) is faster than Von Miller (1.62) and Khalil Mack (1.64).

4. colts: anthony richardson

QB • Florida

Indy is going quarterback, and with Arizona staying put , they get their choice of the two high-ceiling, low-floor guys. I like Richardson considering he’s wildly unique traits pair nicely with a new head coach who coordinated Jalen Hurts to a near MVP season and Super Bowl berth. Will Levis has the same limitations, with slightly lower upside.

5. titans: will levis

🚨TRADE🚨 QB • Kentucy

Could be Seattle sticking here to take their own future passer project. But I think Ran Carthon as a new GM in Tennessee wants to make a splash here and find his guy at the most important spot. Ryan Tannehill is gone after this season at best, and the redshirt year for Levis sets up perfectly for a team hoping to be drafting much lower from here on out.

6. lions: devon witherspoon

CB • Illinois

I know the Lions just signed Cam Sutton, and I know Jeff Okudah wasn’t awful last season, but while another pass rusher might make sense (Tyree Wilson anyone?), Witherspoon fits the mold of what Brad Holmes has added in two drafts so far - productive leaders with a mean streak who play well beyond their somewhat limited physical attributes.

7. raiders: tyree wilson

ED • Texas Tech

The Raiders netted 27 sacks last season and only six interceptions. That’s it. With Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones coming off the edge. Think Josh McDaniels and DC Patrick Graham will be ok standing pat after that? In Wilson, the Raiders get a younger version of Jones, who can add some juice across from Crosby while learning from a doppelganger.

8. falcons: lukas van ness

ED • Iowa

Great season, Atlanta, you’re drafting eighth again. That’s what happens when you spend your first two top 10 picks on a tight end and a receiver. Now’s the time to buck that trend and actually look at positional value. Van Ness isn’t perfect, but he’s an amazing athlete, and I’m betting he’ll remind new DC Ryan Neilsen of Cam Jordan.

9. bears: jalen carter

IDL • Georgia

Maybe his off-field troubles really do make him undraftable in the top 10. I don’t buy it though. He gained nine pounds, looked bad against bags, and was involved in a tragic situation. But he’s also the best on-field player in this class at a huge position of need for Chicago. Bears new LBs will love having him up front. Bears get their guy at 9th.

10. eagles: myles murphy

ED • Clemson

With no testing until his private workout April 4th, Murphy is a bit of mystery from a RAS standpoint, but watch his combination of speed and power on tape, and it’s easy to see a top 10 player. The Eagles love to load up in the trenches, and with Brandon Graham on a one-year deal, and Josh Sweat potentially gone after 2023, this makes sense.

11. seahawks: nolan smith

🚨TRADE🚨 ED • Georgia

Seattle has prioritized speed off the edge over size when finding edge rushers before, and Nolan Smith has some Bruce Irvin to his game. Throw in the fact that John Schneider has attributed some of last year’s class’s success to a renewed focus on high character guys and you arrive at the 4.39 speed-blessed Smith as a perfect fit.

12. texans: christian gonzalez

CB • Oregon

Maybe not Houston’s biggest need, and Demeco Ryans comes from a system that rarely used high picks on corners, but guys like Gonzalez don’t grow on trees, and locking up a young CB duo of Gonzalez and Derek Stingley gives a smart defensive coach a lot of flexibility with pressure packages up front. He’s too good to fall further than this.

13. jets: broderick jones

OT • Georgia

Jones is the top tackle on a few team’s boards, and while I think he’s got some growing to do as a guy who only made 19 starts, he did manage to give up exactly zero sacks on a national championship team, and he has the athletic traits to lock down the left side in the event Mekhi Becton can’t stay healty. Again. Can’t put Rodgers behind a turnstile.

14. jaguars: peter skoronski

🚨TRADE🚨 IDL • Georgia

Doug Pederson won his only Super Bowl behind a pretty strong offensive line, and while there is hope for Walker Little as a replacement for Jawaan Taylor, I don’t see this team leaving Trevor Lawrence’s health to chance. Skoronski looks like an excellent fit on the right side, but he has the potential to kick inside and provide protection at multiple spots.

15. packers: dalton kincaid

TE • Utah

It’ll be hilarious to watch the Packers finally spend first-round picks on offensive weapons once Aaron Rodgers is no longer in town. Spite aside, Green Bay has a gaping hole at tight end, and Kincaid plays the position with the body control, contested catch ability, and fluidity of some of the better receivers in most classes. Easy fit.

16. bills: bijan robinson

🚨TRADE🚨 RB • Texas

He may not last this long. He may last longer. But if he’s on the board here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bills go all-in on grabbing Josh Allen a true feature backfield mate for the first time in his career. It’s time to start thinking about keeping him healthy long-term, and Robinson can provide a primary ground game option like no one else.

17. steelers: paris johnson

OT • Ohio State

Talk about a dream scenario… The Steelers stand pat and address their biggest need with my top rated offensive tackle. Did you see what Johnson was able to do against Georgia? He’s not perfect, but he’s got all the traits to lock down the left side for years to come and give Kenny Pickett the time needed to be the best average passer in the NFL.

18. lions: darnell washington

TE • Georgia

Haven’t seen this pick anywhere. So it’s probably a damn lock. Tight end is not Detroit’s biggest need. But Washington is as rare a prospect as it gets, and his ability to function as a nasty sixth offensive lineman while also moving at 4.6 speed at over 260 pounds gives pretty strong knee-biter vibes. Former TE Dan Campbell would love this.

19. bucs: darnell wright

OT • Tennessee

For a team a few years removed from a Super Bowl, this roster is weird. Strength at linebacker, receiver, and maybe corner is a strange construction. Holes abound, and there’s not solid answer at QB, but no matter who’s under center, better protection is a must. Tristan Wirfs can move to the left side allowing Wright to step in on the right.

20. seahawks: zay jones

WR • Boston College

Jones as the first WR off the board? Madness. But Seattle certainly marches to the beat of their own draft drum, and Jones fits the mold of what they tend to look for. Not a huge need, but with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (who is due a ton of money in 2024/5) grabbing such a high % of passing yards, diversity in this WR corps isn’t unneeded.

21. chargers: jaxon smith-njigba

WR • Ohio State

Keenan Allen is still producing, but that can’t last much longer, and while he’s still around, grabbing a smart, slick route runner like Njigba makes a ton of sense. He can work in the slot, and despite lacking high end speed (sound familiar?), he knows how to get open, how to be a reliable weapon, and complements the other WRs perfectly.

22. ravens: joey porter jr

CB • Penn State

The new Packers. QB desperate for weapons? Get some defensive help! This D took major strides toward reclaiming their title as a dominant unit late last season, so why stop that momentum now? Porter is a big corner who can play in this system, and bonus points for the fact that it’ll piss off his Steeler dad. Ravens need CB reinforcements.

23. vikings: jordan addison

WR • USC

I was shocked when the Vikings didn’t go WR in round one last year. And now that Adam Thielen is gone, they almost have to this year… For Kevin O’Connell’s offense to truly hum, a smooth route running complement to Justin Jefferson is needed. Addison fits the bill, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Minnesota move up the board to grab him if needed.

24. patriots: michael mayer

🚨TRADE🚨 TE • Notre Dame

Yeah New England loves tights end lol rotfl lmao. And I know they have Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. But both are only under contract through 2023, and neither has the well-rounded game of Mayer. This offense was at it’s best with strong options at this spot, and with Juju Smith-Schuster upgrading the WR corps, a falling Mayer is snatched here.

25. giants: quentin johnston

WR • TCU

I’m not sold on Johnston being exactly what Buffalo is looking for at WR, but they have a few shifty little guys in Wan’Dale Robinson and Parris Campbell, and QJ is the only true X type receiver worthy of a first-rounder this year. Maybe he goes earlier, but he’s also a body catcher who lacks precision in his routes. I don’t love it, but it’s such a need.

26. cowboys: adetomiwa adebawore

DL • Northwestern

I don’t know exactly where you play him, but a guy this athletic (4.49 at 280lb!!) who lit the Senior Bowl on fire is going in the first round. Dallas hit hard on another athletic freak in Micah Parsons, and a move like this gives Dan Quinn such incredible flexibility: line Ade up inside and rush Parsons from the edge, or use Parsons off ball and move Ade out.

27. commanders: brian branch

🚨TRADE🚨 S • Alabama

I’m not sold on Branch. He’s a man without a home to me. But his spot is likely as a nickel, and with Darren Waller and Dallas Goedert in this division, having a tight end killer who can also move outside or play over the top is a smart chess piece move. He’s the type of versatile player Ron Rivera has banked on in the past, and he’s solid value here.

28. bengals: calijah kancey

IDL • Pitt

The Bengals tend to stick to their board, and they also like to draft a year ahead to replace players in their final years of their deals. DJ Reader and BJ Hill could both be gone after this season, and Kancey could be excellent value here if he hits. He’s not Aaron Donald, but he might be Geno Atkins…

29. saints: mazi smith

IDL • Michigan

This defensive line has been absolutely gutted. Poor Cam Jordan has almost no one next to him up front, and as good as he’s been, he can’t be asked to play every spot single-handedly. Smith is more athletic than his testing suggest, and he’s a massive human with the quicks to move all over the front. If he’s here, it’ll be a quick pick.

30. eagles: deonte banks

CB • Maryland

After hitting the trenches with their first pick, Howie turns his attention to a secondary that seems set but really contains team-friendly flexibility for two aging corners who could need replacements sooner than later. Banks is an athletic marvel who can play across schemes, and gives Philly insurance now and in the future.

31. seahawks: hendon hooker

QB • Tennessee

Surprise! The Seahawks are rumored to be interested in moving up from their second round spot, and the chance to grab a developmental passer with a fifth year option is too enticing here. Had Hooker not been injured late in the year, we’d hear more about him as a surefire first rounder. He’ll sit behind Geno until he’s ready. And then he’ll ball.